ML Analysis — MIAMI COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 170109 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-24.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -17.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-52.6%, 4.0%]. P16 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.159 | -0.0208 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 247584.547 | -0.0208 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 18.000 | +0.0204 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 15%Low turnaround probability (15%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.5%
Distress Risk
$3.4M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-5.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P62. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.159 | +0.340 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.292 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.422 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.073 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1555096.056 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.4M
Current margin: -17.2%
Projected margin: -5.0%
Grade: B
Comps: 104
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.292 | 0.835 | 54.3% | $1.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.159 | 0.396 | 23.7% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.506 | 0.511 | 0.5% | $75K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.2% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |