ML Analysis — HAYS MEDICAL CENTER INC.
CCN 170013 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.5%, 12.1%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.131 | +0.0203 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1776432.243 | -0.0147 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.913 | +0.0125 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 625062.141 | -0.0082 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Reimbursement Quality.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
51.3%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-10.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P24. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.395 | +0.121 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.031 | -0.058 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.563 | +0.040 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.322 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 136.000 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1581774.301 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: -12.3%
Projected margin: -10.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.407 | 0.652 | 24.6% | $3.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.395 | 0.537 | 14.2% | $938K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |