ML Analysis — VIA CHRISTI HOSPITAL PITTSBURG INC.
CCN 170006 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-20.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -16.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-49.2%, 7.4%]. P20 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.117 | +0.0243 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1412796.016 | -0.0232 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.274 | -0.0224 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 64.000 | +0.0132 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 19%Low turnaround probability (19%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Reimbursement Quality.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
55.7%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-11.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P42. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.274 | +0.185 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.413 | +0.104 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.297 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 64.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1412796.016 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.332 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: -16.9%
Projected margin: -11.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 34
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.394 | 0.571 | 17.6% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.297 | 0.420 | 12.3% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.413 | 0.545 | 13.2% | $872K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P58 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |