ML Analysis — MERCYONE ELKADER MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 161319 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.2%, 15.4%]. P31 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 822218.333 | -0.1057 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 814410.667 | +0.1038 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.708 | -0.0387 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.649 | +0.0315 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.082 | -0.0269 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
23.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
IA distress rate: 67.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.178 | +0.322 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.649 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.649 | +0.125 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 822218.333 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 15.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: 0.9%
Projected margin: 23.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 84
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.351 | 0.476 | 12.5% | $1.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.178 | 0.320 | 14.1% | $933K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |