ML Analysis — MARY GREELEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 160030 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.9%, 22.7%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.082 | -0.0269 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1521464.260 | +0.0167 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1469016.187 | -0.0154 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.011 | +0.0148 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.011 | +0.0094 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving State Peer Margin.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.7%
Distress Risk
$1.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P23. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IA distress rate: 67.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.632 | -0.099 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.011 | -0.077 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.313 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.377 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1469016.187 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 150.000 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.8M
Current margin: -3.6%
Projected margin: -2.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 17
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.611 | 0.694 | 8.3% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.313 | 0.334 | 2.1% | $553K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |