ML Analysis — ST. ANTHONY REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 160005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -21.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.0%, 15.6%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2074641.184 | -0.0514 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.082 | -0.0269 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1713881.612 | +0.0188 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 49.000 | +0.0156 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.892 | -0.0112 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 29%Low turnaround probability (29%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.0%
Distress Risk
$2.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-18.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P41. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IA distress rate: 67.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.379 | +0.136 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.049 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.479 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 49.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1713881.612 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.383 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.2M
Current margin: -21.1%
Projected margin: -18.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 75
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.383 | 0.592 | 20.9% | $2.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.472 | 0.484 | 1.2% | $177K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P55 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |