ML Analysis — NEUROBEHAVIORAL HOSPITAL LLC
CCN 154065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.1%, 24.5%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 223368.229 | -0.1893 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 220308.429 | +0.1770 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 182523.753 | -0.0229 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.817 | +0.0166 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.4%
Distress Risk
$1.4M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
10.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P61. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.817 | -0.271 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 223368.229 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.044 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.297 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 70.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.321 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.4M
Current margin: 1.4%
Projected margin: 10.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 74
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.634 | 0.718 | 8.4% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.297 | 0.391 | 9.4% | $173K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P28 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |