ML Analysis — REHABILITATION HOSPITAL OF INDIANA
CCN 153028 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.9%, 22.8%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 474248.363 | -0.1543 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 507705.143 | +0.1416 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 267486.642 | -0.0201 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.248 | -0.0134 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.2%
Distress Risk
$1.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P34. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 474248.363 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.029 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.564 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 91.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.295 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.367 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.9M
Current margin: -7.0%
Projected margin: -2.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 62
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.677 | 0.761 | 8.4% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.564 | 0.665 | 10.1% | $669K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P30 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |