ML Analysis — KINDRED HOSPITAL INDIANAPOLIS
CCN 152007 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -25.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.8%, 19.8%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 237507.831 | -0.1873 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 298118.390 | +0.1674 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 73607.024 | -0.0265 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 59.000 | +0.0140 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
52.8%
Distress Risk
$3.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
1.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P12. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.310 | +0.200 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.007 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 237507.831 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.254 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 59.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.346 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.8M
Current margin: -25.5%
Projected margin: 1.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 71
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.310 | 0.692 | 38.2% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.647 | 0.712 | 6.5% | $980K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.254 | 0.460 | 20.6% | $338K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |