ML Analysis — IU HEALTH BLACKFORD HOSPITAL
CCN 151302 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.5%, 19.1%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 2.708 | -0.0387 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1850302.200 | -0.0238 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 15.000 | +0.0209 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 496828.303 | -0.0125 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.5%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
4.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P17. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.311 | +0.199 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.504 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 15.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.365 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1596323.333 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: -15.9%
Projected margin: 4.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 54
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.490 | 0.742 | 25.2% | $3.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.311 | 0.441 | 12.9% | $853K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.365 | 0.488 | 12.3% | $344K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P75 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |