ML Analysis — SCHNECK MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 150065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
60
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.2%, 27.4%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3070563.567 | +0.2082 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3096600.383 | -0.1773 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.311 | -0.0268 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1449193.837 | +0.0191 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 48%Turnaround possible (48%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
53.1%
Distress Risk
$6.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
2.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P28. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.311 | +0.222 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3070563.567 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.472 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.202 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 60.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.368 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.2M
Current margin: -0.9%
Projected margin: 2.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 72
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.487 | 0.704 | 21.7% | $3.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.368 | 0.437 | 6.9% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.472 | 0.689 | 21.7% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P42 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |