ML Analysis — DAVIESS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 150061 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -17.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.6%, 18.0%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 370612.124 | -0.0167 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 42.000 | +0.0167 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1461287.000 | -0.0165 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.254 | -0.0154 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
54.1%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-12.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P11. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.254 | +0.252 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.051 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 42.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.266 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1461287.000 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.358 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: -17.4%
Projected margin: -12.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 91
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.254 | 0.616 | 36.2% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.358 | 0.405 | 4.7% | $338K | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.683 | 0.686 | 0.3% | $47K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P60 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |