ML Analysis — PROVIDENT HOSPITAL
CCN 140300 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
33
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-32.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-60.5%, -3.9%]. P11 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2625100.645 | -0.1192 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 949075.806 | -0.0880 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 206842.328 | -0.0221 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.434 | -0.0218 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 31.000 | +0.0184 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 9%Low turnaround probability (9%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
52.8%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-42.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P70. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.218 | +0.285 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.023 | -0.066 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.225 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.097 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 949075.806 | +0.037 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 31.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -42.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 75
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.218 | 0.423 | 20.5% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.225 | 0.489 | 26.5% | $911K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 39.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 97.7% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |