ML Analysis — GENESIS MEDICAL CENTER - SILVIS
CCN 140275 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.4%, 16.2%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 695475.683 | -0.1234 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 747707.021 | +0.1120 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 101565.074 | -0.0256 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.146 | -0.0215 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.977 | +0.0140 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Low turnaround probability (30%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
57.2%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P64. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.146 | +0.352 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.035 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 695475.683 | +0.052 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.315 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.280 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 145.000 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: -7.5%
Projected margin: -3.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 94
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.146 | 0.694 | 54.8% | $3.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.685 | 0.733 | 4.7% | $710K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.315 | 0.333 | 1.8% | $211K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |