ML Analysis — OTTAWA REGIONAL HOSPITAL & HEALTHCAR
CCN 140110 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 18.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.4%, 25.2%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1240283.083 | +0.0514 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1516326.536 | -0.0088 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 617922.871 | -0.0085 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 97.000 | +0.0081 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.305 | -0.0072 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.4%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
21.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P10. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.408 | +0.109 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.056 | -0.033 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.305 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 97.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.305 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1516326.536 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: 18.2%
Projected margin: 21.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 81
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.408 | 0.699 | 29.2% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.639 | 0.734 | 9.5% | $1.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.305 | 0.372 | 6.8% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P29 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |