ML Analysis — PRESENCE SAINT FRANCIS HOSPITAL
CCN 140080 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.1%, 21.5%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1287478.370 | -0.0407 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.104 | +0.0279 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1449213.048 | +0.0256 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.178 | -0.0213 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.984 | +0.0142 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.2%
Distress Risk
$6.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-9.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P40. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.178 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.583 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1287478.370 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.085 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.330 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 146.000 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.3M
Current margin: -12.6%
Projected margin: -9.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 94
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.178 | 0.333 | 15.4% | $3.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.586 | 0.733 | 14.7% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.583 | 0.694 | 11.1% | $734K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P39 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |