ML Analysis — SSM HEALTH ST. MARYS HOSPITAL
CCN 140034 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.8%, 23.8%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1156525.000 | +0.0617 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1306965.207 | -0.0380 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.144 | +0.0165 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 428519.563 | -0.0147 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.328 | -0.0112 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
53.2%
Distress Risk
$7.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
18.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P56. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.328 | +0.183 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.019 | -0.070 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.570 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1306965.207 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.351 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 92.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.8M
Current margin: 11.5%
Projected margin: 18.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 78
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.411 | 0.739 | 32.9% | $4.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.328 | 0.689 | 36.1% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.351 | 0.383 | 3.2% | $453K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |