ML Analysis — ST. ANTHONYS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 140032 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.9%, 20.7%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1176773.421 | +0.0592 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1228835.429 | -0.0489 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 301026.077 | -0.0190 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.245 | -0.0159 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.890 | +0.0120 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
55.4%
Distress Risk
$6.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
8.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P63. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.245 | +0.260 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.035 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.458 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1228835.429 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.357 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 133.000 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.2M
Current margin: 4.2%
Projected margin: 8.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 95
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.508 | 0.727 | 21.9% | $3.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.245 | 0.689 | 44.4% | $2.9M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |