ML Analysis — NORTHERN IDAHO ADVANCED CARE HOSPITA
CCN 132001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.0%, 20.5%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 401068.025 | -0.1645 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 410392.625 | +0.1536 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 231355.815 | -0.0213 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 40.000 | +0.0170 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.514 | +0.0163 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.5%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
12.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P74. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
ID distress rate: 46.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.208 | +0.119 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 401068.025 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.514 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.577 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.422 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: -2.3%
Projected margin: 12.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 22
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.371 | 0.510 | 13.9% | $2.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.514 | 0.635 | 12.2% | $228K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P39 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |