ML Analysis — ST. LUKES NAMPA MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 130071 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -10.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.6%, 25.0%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3234638.954 | -0.1943 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2938337.931 | +0.1897 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1772626.035 | +0.0298 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.217 | -0.0155 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.249 | -0.0137 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.4%
Distress Risk
$3.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-8.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P79. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
ID distress rate: 46.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.217 | +0.128 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2938337.931 | -0.080 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.603 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.179 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.413 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 87.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.1M
Current margin: -10.1%
Projected margin: -8.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 2145
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.604 | 0.746 | 14.3% | $2.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.603 | 0.738 | 13.5% | $890K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.413 | 0.415 | 0.2% | $57K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P31 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |