ML Analysis — MOUNTAIN VIEW HOSPITAL
CCN 130065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
64
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health20/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
29.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [0.9%, 57.5%]. P97 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 8895102.861 | +1.0212 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 8125133.023 | -0.7968 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 5500285.012 | +0.1535 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.430 | -0.0413 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 43.000 | +0.0165 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
44.3%
Distress Risk
$7.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
10.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P98. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
ID distress rate: 46.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 8895102.860 | -0.432 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.430 | +0.341 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.618 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.049 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.454 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 43.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.4M
Current margin: 8.7%
Projected margin: 10.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 18
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.454 | 0.620 | 16.5% | $7.4M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |