ML Analysis — NORTH HAWAII COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 120028 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.5%, 18.1%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2843271.152 | +0.1764 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2875234.061 | -0.1501 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.147 | -0.0753 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1702657.934 | +0.0275 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.259 | -0.0205 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
48.2%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
4.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P40. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
HI distress rate: 68.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.259 | +0.170 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2843271.152 | -0.075 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.599 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.290 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.209 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 33.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: -1.1%
Projected margin: 4.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 2599
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.290 | 0.562 | 27.1% | $3.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.532 | 0.649 | 11.7% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.599 | 0.609 | 1.0% | $68K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P58 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |