ML Analysis — ST. SIMONS BY THE SEA
CCN 114016 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.8%, 19.8%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 139760.822 | -0.2009 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 130889.960 | +0.1880 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.298 | -0.0279 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 71830.959 | -0.0266 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Commercial % | 0.906 | +0.0131 | Higher Commercial % increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
22.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.094 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 139760.822 | +0.085 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.329 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.514 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 101.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.2M
Current margin: 6.3%
Projected margin: 22.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 58
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.514 | 0.849 | 33.5% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |