ML Analysis — UHS OF PEACHFORD LP
CCN 114010 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 17.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.2%, 21.4%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 199185.724 | -0.1926 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 164823.260 | +0.1838 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.314 | -0.0324 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.505 | +0.0263 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 135873.990 | -0.0245 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$815K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
18.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.682 | -0.146 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.070 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 199185.724 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.338 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 246.000 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $815K
Current margin: 17.2%
Projected margin: 18.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.682 | 0.806 | 12.4% | $815K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |