ML Analysis — KENNESTONE HOSPITAL AT WINDY HILL
CCN 112007 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.6%, 29.0%]. P64 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2917741.364 | +0.1868 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2896751.273 | -0.1527 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.113 | +0.0254 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.206 | -0.0182 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1376970.445 | +0.0167 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.1%
Distress Risk
$7.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
5.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P4. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 2917741.364 | -0.079 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.206 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.472 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.063 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 55.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.388 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.4M
Current margin: 0.7%
Projected margin: 5.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 62
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.206 | 0.382 | 17.6% | $3.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.549 | 0.704 | 15.6% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.472 | 0.745 | 27.3% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |