ML Analysis — FLINT RIVER COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 110190 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health1/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility1/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-19.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -10.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-47.8%, 8.8%]. P21 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 379261.364 | -0.1675 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 418908.000 | +0.1525 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.394 | -0.0369 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.091 | -0.0298 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.012 | -0.0292 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 20%Low turnaround probability (20%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
69.5%
Distress Risk
$5.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
51.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P78. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.012 | +0.477 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.394 | +0.304 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 379261.364 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.514 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.043 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 22.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.1M
Current margin: -10.4%
Projected margin: 51.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.012 | 0.570 | 55.8% | $3.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.564 | 0.661 | 9.7% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P74 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |