ML Analysis — PHOEBE SUMTER MEDICAL CENTER INC.
CCN 110044 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.7%, 28.9%]. P64 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1869591.481 | +0.0405 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1900208.704 | -0.0299 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1604566.692 | +0.0243 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.858 | +0.0189 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 54.000 | +0.0148 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 51%Turnaround possible (51%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
40.1%
Distress Risk
$1.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-0.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P53. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.858 | -0.309 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.278 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.122 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.167 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1869591.481 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 54.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.2M
Current margin: -1.6%
Projected margin: -0.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 61
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.278 | 0.380 | 10.2% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P37 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |