ML Analysis — STEPHENS COUNTY HOSPITAL
CCN 110032 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.8%, 21.8%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1160032.000 | +0.0612 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1234039.325 | -0.0482 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.316 | -0.0329 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.555 | +0.0209 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 40.000 | +0.0170 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.6%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
13.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P4. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.380 | +0.135 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.555 | +0.083 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1234039.325 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.070 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.361 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: 6.0%
Projected margin: 13.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 85
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.380 | 0.673 | 29.3% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.569 | 0.676 | 10.7% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |