ML Analysis — TANNER MEDICAL CENTER-VILLA RICA
CCN 110015 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
64
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health21/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
35.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 33.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [7.6%, 64.2%]. P99 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4997165.345 | +0.4771 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3333780.603 | -0.2065 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 4249833.012 | +0.1120 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.850 | +0.0185 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 58.000 | +0.0142 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
35.6%
Distress Risk
$1.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
33.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P97. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
GA distress rate: 44.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.850 | -0.302 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4997165.345 | -0.202 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.065 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.222 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 58.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.348 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.1M
Current margin: 33.3%
Projected margin: 33.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 68
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.348 | 0.381 | 3.4% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |