ML Analysis — ENCOMPASS HEALTH REHABILITATION HOSP
CCN 103031 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
10.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 23.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-17.8%, 38.8%]. P83 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 386269.017 | +0.1566 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 504711.905 | -0.1500 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.730 | +0.0405 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.622 | +0.0325 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
nan%
Distress Risk
$8.1M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
37.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.852 | -0.303 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.771 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.730 | +0.161 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 504711.905 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 116.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.1M
Current margin: 23.5%
Projected margin: 37.2%
Grade: B
Comps: 122
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.229 | 0.766 | 53.7% | $8.1M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |