ML Analysis — ST JOHNS REHABILITATION HOSPITAL
CCN 103027 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -18.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.4%, 25.2%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 954912.846 | -0.0872 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1132780.423 | +0.0646 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.644 | +0.0309 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.258 | -0.0259 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 45%Turnaround possible (45%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.9%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
5.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P22. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.644 | +0.123 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.443 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.559 | +0.040 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 954912.846 | +0.037 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.054 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 26.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: -18.6%
Projected margin: 5.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.387 | 0.652 | 26.5% | $4.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.443 | 0.744 | 30.1% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P57 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |