ML Analysis — HCA FLORIDA PASADENA HOSPITAL
CCN 100126 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.4%, 25.2%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 504200.910 | -0.1501 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 540226.988 | +0.1376 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.044 | +0.0452 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.077 | -0.0327 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
51.9%
Distress Risk
$7.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
1.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P71. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.290 | +0.218 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.077 | -0.130 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 504200.910 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.026 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.399 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 167.000 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.6M
Current margin: -7.1%
Projected margin: 1.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 123
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.290 | 0.754 | 46.3% | $3.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.575 | 0.767 | 19.2% | $2.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.077 | 0.243 | 16.6% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P49 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |