ML Analysis — LEE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 100012 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health22/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 17.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.0%, 29.6%]. P65 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 748.000 | -0.0935 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.032 | +0.0578 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.617 | +0.0521 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1409389.906 | +0.0305 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.134 | +0.0195 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
47.1%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
17.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P53. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
FL distress rate: 30.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.656 | -0.122 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 748.000 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.214 | -0.069 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.131 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.246 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1706371.749 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: 17.4%
Projected margin: 17.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 36
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.623 | 0.759 | 13.6% | $2.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.214 | 0.225 | 1.1% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.656 | 0.752 | 9.5% | $628K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |