ML Analysis — BAYHEALTH HOSPITAL SUSSEX CAMPUS
CCN 080009 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
66
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
4.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.1%, 32.5%]. P72 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2552299.590 | +0.1358 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2588473.265 | -0.1147 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.007 | +0.0391 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1742950.777 | +0.0289 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.260 | -0.0207 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 57%Turnaround possible (57%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.4%
Distress Risk
$7.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
0.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P85. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
DE distress rate: 28.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.260 | +0.171 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.683 | -0.146 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2552299.590 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 117.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.348 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.365 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.0M
Current margin: -1.4%
Projected margin: 0.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 2110
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.393 | 0.753 | 36.0% | $5.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.365 | 0.397 | 3.2% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.683 | 0.750 | 6.7% | $440K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P29 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |