ML Analysis — HOSPITAL FOR SPECIAL CARE
CCN 072004 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.0%, 18.6%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 552183.380 | -0.1434 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 553538.173 | +0.1360 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.803 | -0.0864 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.069 | +0.0381 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.963 | +0.0249 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
58.6%
Distress Risk
$6.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
4.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P96. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CT distress rate: 74.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.803 | +0.714 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.963 | -0.406 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 552183.381 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.048 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.466 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 226.000 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.1M
Current margin: -0.2%
Projected margin: 4.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 20
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.148 | 0.554 | 40.6% | $6.1M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P31 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |