ML Analysis — BRISTOL HOSPITAL INC
CCN 070029 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.5%, 17.1%]. P35 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1187327.569 | -0.0547 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1265906.911 | +0.0482 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.330 | -0.0292 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.118 | +0.0240 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.068 | -0.0169 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 31%Turnaround possible (31%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
55.2%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P4. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CT distress rate: 74.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.330 | +0.241 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.264 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.484 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1187327.569 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.224 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 123.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: -6.6%
Projected margin: -2.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 21
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.484 | 0.824 | 34.0% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.446 | 0.566 | 12.0% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.264 | 0.353 | 8.8% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P45 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |