ML Analysis — YALE NEW HAVEN HOSPITAL
CCN 070022 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.1%, 11.5%]. P25 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 1306.000 | -0.1806 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3052219.570 | -0.1719 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2638143.335 | +0.1478 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 7.175 | +0.0651 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2233785.567 | +0.0451 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 23%Low turnaround probability (23%). Structural disadvantages in Bed Count and Expense/Bed.
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
46.7%
Distress Risk
$8.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-15.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P89. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CT distress rate: 74.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.847 | -0.298 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 1306.000 | +0.155 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.240 | +0.151 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2638143.335 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.298 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.225 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.4M
Current margin: -15.7%
Projected margin: -15.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 137
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.298 | 0.310 | 1.1% | $4.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.535 | 0.772 | 23.7% | $3.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.847 | 0.882 | 3.5% | $230K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |