ML Analysis — JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC.
CCN 070008 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -20.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.7%, 12.9%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1796309.296 | -0.0171 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.068 | -0.0169 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 44.000 | +0.0163 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 422948.226 | -0.0149 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.284 | -0.0137 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 25%Low turnaround probability (25%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
56.9%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-11.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P25. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CT distress rate: 74.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.284 | +0.224 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.184 | +0.095 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 44.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.275 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1491556.545 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.376 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: -20.4%
Projected margin: -11.9%
Grade: C
Comps: 2712
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.284 | 0.651 | 36.8% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.541 | 0.671 | 13.0% | $1.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.376 | 0.537 | 16.1% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P67 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |