ML Analysis — CLEAR VIEW BEHAVIORAL HEALTH
CCN 064027 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.4%, 12.2%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 39345.859 | -0.2150 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 95888.543 | +0.1923 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.485 | -0.0480 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 7877.128 | -0.0287 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.109 | +0.0266 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
66.8%
Distress Risk
$8.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
181.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P84. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.485 | +0.396 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.200 | +0.302 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 39345.859 | +0.091 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.163 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.310 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 92.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.4M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: 181.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 36
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.352 | 0.663 | 31.2% | $4.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.200 | 0.760 | 55.9% | $3.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.310 | 0.372 | 6.2% | $26K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 37.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P81 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P2 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |