ML Analysis — SPALDING REHAB HOSPITAL
CCN 063027 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.4%, 19.2%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 534289.429 | -0.1459 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 509541.643 | +0.1414 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.056 | +0.0419 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.128 | -0.0270 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.256 | -0.0203 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
49.8%
Distress Risk
$3.1M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
18.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P46. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.256 | +0.167 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.128 | -0.107 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.619 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 534289.429 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 42.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.307 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.1M
Current margin: 4.6%
Projected margin: 18.4%
Grade: B
Comps: 44
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.437 | 0.546 | 10.9% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.128 | 0.520 | 39.2% | $1.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.619 | 0.682 | 6.3% | $414K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P58 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |