ML Analysis — NORTHERN COLORADO LONG TERM ACUTE HO
CCN 062017 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 17.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.1%, 22.6%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 515845.750 | +0.1406 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 624945.000 | -0.1332 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.380 | -0.0352 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.491 | +0.0227 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
51.5%
Distress Risk
$1.3M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
28.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P54. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.865 | -0.315 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.380 | +0.290 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.568 | +0.089 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 624945.000 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.226 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.3M
Current margin: 17.5%
Projected margin: 28.2%
Grade: B
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.394 | 0.475 | 8.1% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.568 | 0.657 | 8.9% | $130K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |