ML Analysis — KINDRED HOSPITAL AURORA
CCN 062013 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position7/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.0%, 18.6%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 648456.459 | +0.1243 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 699179.432 | -0.1229 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.687 | -0.0724 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.050 | +0.0436 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.925 | +0.0227 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
53.4%
Distress Risk
$5.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
29.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P86. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.687 | +0.598 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.925 | -0.371 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.233 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 699179.432 | +0.052 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.099 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 37.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.8M
Current margin: 7.2%
Projected margin: 29.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 48
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.214 | 0.531 | 31.8% | $4.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.233 | 0.563 | 33.0% | $997K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |