ML Analysis — KINDRED HOSPITAL DENVER
CCN 062009 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.6%, 18.0%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 579900.632 | -0.1395 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 568570.853 | +0.1341 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.545 | -0.0552 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.112 | +0.0257 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 413196.724 | -0.0153 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
55.5%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
12.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P24. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.545 | +0.456 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.713 | -0.174 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 579900.632 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.067 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.289 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 68.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: 1.9%
Projected margin: 12.8%
Grade: B
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.388 | 0.625 | 23.6% | $3.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.289 | 0.394 | 10.5% | $486K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.713 | 0.748 | 3.5% | $231K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P45 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |