ML Analysis — ARKANSAS VALLEY REGL MED CTR
CCN 061336 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.3%, 16.3%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid % | 0.417 | -0.0397 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1852524.000 | +0.0381 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1947862.800 | -0.0358 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 20.000 | +0.0201 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Low turnaround probability (30%). Structural disadvantages in Medicaid % and Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
61.2%
Distress Risk
$3.9M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
5.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P17. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.417 | +0.328 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.321 | +0.189 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.410 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.222 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1852524.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.9M
Current margin: -5.1%
Projected margin: 5.4%
Grade: B
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.361 | 0.475 | 11.4% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.321 | 0.495 | 17.3% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.410 | 0.657 | 24.7% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P72 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |