ML Analysis — KREMMLING MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
CCN 061318 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.6%, 20.0%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2273652.454 | +0.0969 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2260805.500 | -0.0744 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.331 | -0.0373 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.091 | -0.0298 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.609 | +0.0269 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
57.7%
Distress Risk
$1.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
3.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P47. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.260 | +0.171 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.373 | +0.141 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.609 | +0.107 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2273652.455 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.196 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 22.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.3M
Current margin: 0.6%
Projected margin: 3.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.373 | 0.538 | 16.5% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.609 | 0.641 | 3.3% | $191K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P46 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |