ML Analysis — SPANISH PEAKS REGIONAL HEALTH
CCN 061316 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -36.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.7%, 11.9%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid % | 0.653 | -0.0683 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1275294.850 | -0.0424 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.703 | +0.0374 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 20.000 | +0.0201 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Medicaid % and Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
66.9%
Distress Risk
$3.3M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-23.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P79. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.653 | +0.564 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.702 | +0.149 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.462 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.078 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1275294.850 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.3M
Current margin: -36.3%
Projected margin: -23.3%
Grade: B
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.268 | 0.475 | 20.7% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.462 | 0.493 | 3.1% | $205K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P74 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |