ML Analysis — BANNER FORT COLLINS MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 060126 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.1%, 18.5%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid % | 0.370 | -0.0340 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1791839.448 | +0.0297 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.367 | -0.0234 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1834329.621 | -0.0218 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 29.000 | +0.0187 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Medicaid %.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
56.3%
Distress Risk
$2.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P8. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.370 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.453 | +0.067 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.072 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 29.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1791839.448 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.382 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.1M
Current margin: -2.4%
Projected margin: 1.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 50
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.382 | 0.635 | 25.4% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.453 | 0.541 | 8.8% | $582K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P59 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |