ML Analysis — ORTHOCOLORADO HOSPITAL
CCN 060124 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
2.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 33.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.2%, 30.4%]. P67 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2296367.125 | +0.1001 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.123 | -0.0229 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 281934.115 | -0.0196 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 48.000 | +0.0157 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1535511.396 | +0.0150 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
39.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.123 | +0.374 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.315 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.244 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2296367.125 | -0.042 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 48.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.3M
Current margin: 33.1%
Projected margin: 39.7%
Grade: C
Comps: 51
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.123 | 0.738 | 61.6% | $4.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.244 | 0.493 | 24.9% | $3.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |