ML Analysis — CENTURA ST. ANTHONY NORTH HOSPITAL
CCN 060104 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.9%, 29.7%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2273803.627 | +0.0969 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2024933.686 | -0.0453 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.092 | +0.0314 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.278 | -0.0229 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.170 | -0.0223 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
47.4%
Distress Risk
$8.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
14.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P39. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.278 | +0.189 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.642 | -0.108 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.170 | -0.089 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2273803.627 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.179 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 118.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.5M
Current margin: 10.9%
Projected margin: 14.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 34
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.170 | 0.359 | 19.0% | $6.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.543 | 0.653 | 10.9% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.642 | 0.780 | 13.9% | $914K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P32 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |