ML Analysis — NORTH SUBURBAN MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 060065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.8%, 22.8%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.034 | +0.0482 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1329344.896 | +0.0404 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.395 | -0.0370 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.073 | -0.0331 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1393791.104 | -0.0259 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
49.5%
Distress Risk
$8.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
10.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P2. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.395 | +0.306 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.676 | -0.140 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.073 | -0.132 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.142 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1393791.104 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 115.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.9M
Current margin: 4.6%
Projected margin: 10.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 34
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.073 | 0.359 | 28.6% | $5.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.463 | 0.653 | 18.9% | $2.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.676 | 0.780 | 10.4% | $686K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P42 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |